As I had promised, I would offer my own predictions for the Hong Kong Film Awards last year. I have to admit that this year is quite hard to call, especially with the technical awards. So, I will try and look for patterns from past voting and call what will most likely win.

Of course, you can come up with your own predictions with the list of nominees, and we can match results during my live blog on Sunday night. If you predict more than me, you get a cyber pat on the back.

Here are my predictions, with comments on selected categories:

BEST NEW DIRECTOR:

Will win: Ivy Ho (Crossing Hennessy)
Should win: Freddie Wong (The Drunkard)

As seen with all the nominations for CROSSING HENNESSY, you can tell that the HKFA committee has a thing for Ivy Ho. Considering that she lost two years ago to Derek Kwok, she may finally get her chance here. However, I think Freddie Wong did the best, directing-wise, even though I enjoyed ONCE A GANGSTER the most out of these three films.

BEST ASIAN FILM

Will win: Aftershock
Should win: Confessions

People who follow the blog know how much I loved CONFESSIONS, so it’s an easy choice for me. But you know the popular opinion is for AFTERSHOCK, and the Hong Kong-based committee will definitely be no different.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Will Win: Detective Dee

Should win: Dream Home

No clear winner, but I think DREAM HOME’s make-up/special effects team really made the film. DETECTIVE DEE would also be a fine choice, though.

BEST SOUND DESIGN:

Will Win: anything with Kinson Tsang

Should win: Anything not with Kinson Tsang

Poor Kinson Tsang does almost every major HK films these days, but his work is highly overrated. He overmixed the INFERNAL AFFAIRS trilogy and hasn’t done one good dubbed movie since. You work hard, Mr. Tsang, but I’d rather see someone else get the award. You should be fine, though, look at how much money you probably make.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

Will Win: Here to Stay (Merry-Go-Round)

Should Win: Here to Stay (Merry-Go-Round)

I hated how the music was used in MERRY-GO-ROUND, but I love Jun Kung’s music. So there.

Best ORIGINAL FILM SCORE:

Will Win: Ip Man 2

Should Win: Gallants

BEST ACTION DESIGN:

Will Win: Ip Man 2

Should Win: Detective Dee

DETECTIVE DEE should be recognized for the cave fight scene alone, but IP MAN is IP MAN.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

Will Win: Confucius

Should win: Bruce Lee My Brother

BEST ART DIRECTION:

Will Win: Confucius

Should win: Confucius

BEST EDITING:

Will Win: Ip Man 2

Should Win: Detective Dee

A Tsui Hark movie is never easy to edit, and anyone who can take a Tsui Hark work and edit it into a coherent piece of cinema deserves recognition.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Will Win: Peter Pau (COnfucius)

Should win: Jason Kwan (Merry-Go-Round)

Just like Arthur Wong, Peter Pau is one of those figures who would likely win any cinematography nomination. He’ll pick it up, but I’ll remember MERRY-GO-ROUND as the most gorgeous HK film of the year.

BEST NEW ARTIST:

Will Win: Dennis To (Legend is Born)

Should Win: Bryon Pang (Amphetamine)

Dennis To got the most attention-getting role, but Bryon Pang really did give his all to AMPHETAMINE. No matter how bad the movie was, Pang was solid in his role as the unstable drug addict. Plus, judging from how he was at the HKIFF Q&A, his acceptance speech alone will make the show run an hour overtime. At least.

BEST SCREENPLAY

Will Win: Break Up Club

Should Win: Love in a Puff

I’m a Pang Ho-Cheung fan (at least up til recently), and LOVE IN A PUFF is easily his wittiest and most natural script. BREAK UP CLUB has a better chance with its narrative gimmick, but I hated its self-indulgence. I wouldn’t even mind if GALLANTS ended up winning.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Bau Hei-Jing (Crossing Hennessy)

Should Win: Mimi Chi Mi-Mi (Crossing Hennessy)

Bau Hei-Jing simply annoyed me in CROSSING HENNESSY, though it was the writing’s fault. Mimi Chu gives the most subtle performance I’ve seen her in, but that’s because she frequently overacts. Her down-to-earth performance was the most refreshing thing in the film. If Carina Lau was in this category, it would’ve been a hell of a lot easier to pick.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win: Teddy Robin (Gallants)

Should win: Teddy Robin (Gallants)

He won the Most Awesome Award at the LoveHKFilm awards. ’nuff said.

BEST ACTRESS

Will Win: Carina Lau (Detective Dee)

Should win: Fiona Sit (Break Up Club)

Again, as much as I hated BREAK UP CLUB, it featured Fiona’s most natural performance yet. Her performance was easily the most award-bait of all, and may well getting enough votes to beat Carina’s star power votes.

BEST ACTOR

Will Win: Nick Cheung (Stool Pigeon)

Should Win: Nick Cheung (Stool Pigeon)

Nick is the only one that would earn a win, in my humble opinion.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: Wilson Yip (Ip Man 2)

Should win: Tsui Hark (Detective Dee)

Tsui Hark is back, and that’s enough for me. Wilson Yip might get the sympathy vote for not winning for IP MAN, and the first half of IP MAN 2 was actually really damn good.

BEST FILM

Will win: Ip Man 2

Should win: Detective Dee

IP MAN 2 will ride on the tail of IP MAN and likely pick up the blockbuster best picture votes. However, DETECTIVE DEE is a more impressive filmmaking feat overall. But hey, maybe GALLANTS will get the nostalgic love and go home winnin’. I’d be happy, but I’ll just say I didn’t vote for it as Best Film at the LoveHKFilm Awards.

So, now you know my predictions. I may change them during the live blog, but these are the best picks I can make as far as I know now. Join us on the Golden Rock 30th Hong Kong Film Awards Live Blog and catch all the action. Just click on the link and find out what you need to know.

See you all on the 14th!